Obama Underwater in Rasmussen Poll... Again

President Obama’s polling numbers are going nowhere fast. The best thing one can say about Obama’s job approval rating is that it has stabilized somewhat at these low levels.

According to Rasmussen Reports, today’s daily tracking poll shows 29% of the nation’s voters “Strongly Approve” of the job Obama is doing as President. 40% disapprove of the way he is doing his job, adding up to a -11 point deficit under this measure.

Using this same measure, Obama is running a -4 point deficit among women and a -17 point deficit among men.

Overall, 49% of voters generally approve of the job Obama is doing compared to 51% who disapprove.

Rasmussen’s numbers are the worst among national polling media outfits for the President. This is because Rasmussen polls likely voters (just as we do for our clients at Blair Biggs Campaigns) rather than all adults, as other media organizations do in their national polls.

By polling all adults, other media organizations are asking the opinion of people who skew more liberal in their perspective. Many younger voters, for example, have tended to hold liberal views but have a low propensity of voting in mid-term elections. Therefore, Rasmussen’s polls are the most realistic since they are discovering what is on the minds of people who will actually vote, and at the end of the day, that’s all that matters.

The Hunt for Red, in October: Part 2

GOP: Now the Bad News


Can the GOP handle any more bad news after four straight years of bad news? Given that a number of recent polls show Republicans benefitting from a change in the voters’ mood since the 2008 elections, a little more bad news can serve to keep Republicans sharp and focused.

While voters trust Republicans on ten major issues (see Part 1) over Democrats, polling data suggests the Republican base is still unhappy with the GOP.

According to Rasmussen Reports, 73% of Republican primary voters think “Republicans in Congress lost touch with Republican voters throughout the nation.”

This suggests that the GOP still has a tremendous amount of work to do in order to unify the party. To say there is a PR problem is an understatement.

Furthermore, while voters give Democrats low marks for their work in congress (as well as mediocre approval ratings for President Obama), only 15% of primary Republican voters believe “Republicans in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.”

Clearly, Republicans are benefitting more from fear of what the liberal Obama Administration and congressional leadership might do next rather than from anything special the GOP is offering up thus far. Which is fine; it’s a great start and foundation to build on, and it offers a fantastic opportunity to reconnect with voters.

Meanwhile, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steel is viewed “Very” or “Somewhat” favorably by only 39% of Republican voters. 27% view him “Very” or “Somewhat” unfavorably and 35% aren’t sure.

During the 2008 campaign, there was, and still is, an ongoing public debate among Republicans over the direction of the party. A number of Republican consultants and commentators/pundits have gone so far as to say Reaganomics is dead. They have essentially suggested becoming something similar to European right of center parties and abandon issues that have worked for the GOP in the past.

The real problem, from our point of view, is that in recent years the GOP has drifted from its core values, and, with the poll numbers just cited as evidence, we aren’t the only ones who think this.

We take the data to mean voters are hungry for fresh ideas, ideas that directly counter the lurch to the left by the Democratic leadership, without compromising core Republican principles.

This means coming up with an agenda that is uniquely different from the Democrats’, right down to the slogans employed. Right now is a great time to re-awaken the Reagan optimism that put our country, and the GOP, back on track. The hunt continues.

The Hunt for Red, in October: Part 1

GOP: First, the Good News

It must feel good for Republican leadership to have their party back on top – on the issues anyhow. Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on ten key issues that the Rasmussen Report follows and polls regularly.


This is a big change for the Republican Party and its hunt for a renewed identity following the drubbing that Republican candidates have taken in the past two federal election cycles.

After borrowing and spending billions under President Bush, Republicans have regained the voters’ trust especially on taxes, holding a 15 percentage point lead on that issue. The other issues with double digit leads for the GOP, as the accompanying chart shows, are the economy, abortion, national security and Iraq.

Only weeks ago, Republicans did not have a complete sweep on these 10 issues, and on others, their leads were much tighter. As we have noted before, Republicans are the beneficiaries of a clear change in voters’ mood from the 2008 elections.

Momentum is in full-swing in the GOP’s favor. Whether Republicans can harness this momentum, maintain and grow these numbers and benefit materially from them (i.e. score legislative victories and win elections), we will have to wait and see.

One way for Republicans to do it is to formulate a well thought out and researched platform and move as a unit, with all members in congress on the same page. Staying true to core values that the GOP has drifted from in recent years is essential to this, as is strong and focused leadership.